2024 NBA picks, March 13 best bets from proven model
The Miami Heat will look to end a three-game skid when they host the reigning world champion Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. The Heat have lost three in a row — to Dallas, Oklahoma City and Washington — and have dropped to eighth place in the Eastern Conference. If the season ended today, they would need to survive the play-in tournament in order to reach the playoffs. On Wednesday, they will face the Nuggets, who beat Miami in five games in last year’s NBA Finals to win the title.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. Denver is listed as a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds while the Over/Under for total points scored is 217. Before making any Heat vs. Nuggets picks or NBA predictions, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 21 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 70-46 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Nuggets:
Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Denver -3.5
Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 217 points
Nuggets vs. Heat money line: Denver -165, Miami +139
DEN: Nikola Jokic ranks fourth in the NBA in rebounding (12.3 per game)
MIA: Bam Adebayo is 10th in the league in rebounding (10.4)
Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver enters Wednesday’s game on a roll. In 10 games since the All-Star break, the Nuggets are an NBA-best 9-1 and averaging 120.9 points, 45.0 rebounds, 32.7 assists, 8.7 steals and 7.0 blocks per game while shooting 53.1% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 109.8 points over that same stretch.
In addition, Denver has dominated the head-to-head series against Miami recently. Including last year’s NBA Finals, the Nuggets have won 11 of the last 12 matchups against the Heat. Earlier this month, Denver beat Miami 103-97 in Denver. The Nuggets also get to face a Miami team without Tyler Herro (foot). See whom to back at SportsLine.
Why the Heat can cover
Terry Rozier enters the game on a roll. The 29-year-old guard, who was acquired from the Hornets in a trade in January, is averaging 18 points and shooting 48% from the field, including 38.9% on 3-pointers, in his last seven games. On Thursday, he had his best game yet since joining Miami, scoring 27 points and dishing out 11 assists against the Mavericks.
In addition, the Heat have been excellent on the defensive end of the floor recently. Since Jan. 31, Miami has held opponents to 108.5 points per 100 possessions, the third-best mark in the league over that stretch. See whom to back at SportsLine.
How to make Nuggets vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 219 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits 60% of the time. You can see the picks only at SportsLine.